Texas Hold'em Math 09

Miscalculating Odds

There are three main MISTAKES players make when it comes to odds for no limit Texas Holdem. The first is simply miscalculating the OUTS.

For example, let's say you've got an open-ended straight draw and you're certain your opponent has a flush draw. You're holding:

The flop reads:

Your opponent has:

Normally here you would have eight outs, since you have an open-ended straight draw. But since you put your opponent on the flush, you discount the two of diamonds and the seven of diamonds. That means you have six outs:

Discounted cards:

Now here's what's surprising. Just discounting those TWO outs can amount to saving THOUSANDS of dollars when making your poker decisions…

For a normal open-ended straight draw, you'd have a 31.45% chance of getting an out. However, with the flush draw on the table, you only have a 24.14% chance.

Let's say you run into this situation three times per game, about four times per week. That's twelve times per week. Say you lose an average of $10 per missed draw, and win $25 profit from every completed draw.

After about two months, you would have seen this situation 100 times. Without discounting your outs (making a bad calculation), you would expect to win about 32 times (since your odds are 31.45%... rounded up for runner-runner situations).

If you calculate the fact that you'll win $25 profit per win, that equals $800. If you lose 68 times (for the missed draws), you'd lose $680. That means you expect to make a profit of $120 in the two months. It's worth it, right?

Now if you calculate the REAL odds, however, you will find a much different story. Let's crunch some numbers…

With six outs (instead of eight), you'd have a 24.14% chance of winning. After 100 hands, you'd win 25 times, which equals $625 in profit. But you'd lose 75 times, which is a loss of $750.

That means you'd LOSE $125 total… rather than MAKE $120 total… after two months of play. That's a BIG DIFFERENCE, considering we're talking about very low stakes. And we're only talking about ONE specific situation.

Think about all the OTHER outs miscalculations that can happen… and the implication of all those mistakes COMBINED. It's really no wonder so many guys go broke at the poker tables.

Remember, if you're going to make informed poker math decisions, you must be sharp. You must remember to discount outs when possible, not count the same card twice, and look for all "outs" possibilities within a given situation.

OK, now let's take a look at the second mistake I often see players make. It is comparing betting odds of ONE round of betting with the TURN PLUS RIVER odds of the hand.

Remember, when calculating pot odds you must pay attention to the probability of getting an "out" on the NEXT card… NOT on the next two cards.

Every round of betting is INDEPENDENT of the other rounds. That's why I said earlier in this report that the column on our chart that says "Turn And River" isn't used to calculate pot odds.

If the action were to you to call a $20 bet with a $100 pot size, you'd need to be getting better than 5:1 on your hand.

Let's say you have six outs. That means the odds of making your hand on the turn is 6.83:1 and the odds on the river is 6.67:1. The odds of making your hand on EITHER the turn or river is 3.14:1.

3.14:1 is better than 5:1. So does that mean you should call the bet?

NO! Absolutely not.

Here's why: Because the $20 bet is JUST for the turn card… not the turn and river. The number to pay attention to is 6.83:1, which isn't good enough to justify a call. So you should fold.

Think about it… after the turn hits, your opponent is going to bet AGAIN. And this time the bet will probably be HIGHER. If he bets $40 into a $140 pot, you're forced to make another decision in order to see the river card. And if you call that, then you've just spent a total of $60 to see both the turn and river… rather than $20. And that's why the 3.14:1 stat is irrelevant.

So now the question becomes… Can you EVER use the odds figure of making your hand on EITHER the turn or river?

The answer is yes. The number can be used when making an ALL-IN decision after the flop.

For example, if you have a lot of draws after the flop and someone goes all-in, you can use the odds of making your outs on EITHER the turn or river in order to make a decision to call.

But besides those cases, you should focus only on the odds of making your hand for one specific round of betting. Period.

The third big mistake I've seen regarding odds is USING THEM AT THE WRONG TIME.

This is critical.

You see, a lot of amateurs and "fish" out there make DUMB decisions at the poker table. When you encounter one of these players, you'll want to make YOUR decisions based on your read of the situation more than the "odds" of winning.

For example, if someone has played extremely tight the entire game and comes out betting aggressively after the flop, you can put that player on a monster. Even if "odds" dictate a call in your position, you should probably just fold the hand and live to see another day.

It's the same way with overly-aggressive players. Even though the pot odds might dictate folding, sometimes a call will be a better play.

It all depends on the players you're up against. I've said it a million times: poker math is a TOOL, nothing more. Odds are not meant for every situation… and you can't rely on them too much, especially in no limit Texas Holdem.