Chapter 8: Appendix - Common Probability Quick Reference
This chapter provides some of the most commonly used probability figures and tables in Texas Hold'em for quick reference and memorization. Remembering these key data points will help you make probability-based judgments faster at the table.
Table 1: Outs and Draw Success Rate (Estimated vs. Exact)
This table shows the probability of hitting your draw on the flop or turn based on the number of outs you have. It includes both estimated values using the 'Rule of 2 and 4' and more precise calculated values.
| Outs | Flop to River Win % (Rule of 4 Estimate) | Flop to River Win % (Exact) | Turn to River Win % (Rule of 2 Estimate) | Turn to River Win % (Exact) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | ~4.3% | 2% | ~2.2% |
| 2 | 8% | ~8.4% | 4% | ~4.3% |
| 3 | 12% | ~12.5% | 6% | ~6.5% |
| 4 | 16% | ~16.5% | 8% | ~8.7% |
| 5 | 20% | ~20.3% | 10% | ~10.9% |
| 6 | 24% | ~24.1% | 12% | ~13.0% |
| 7 | 28% | ~27.8% | 14% | ~15.2% |
| 8 | 32% | ~31.5% | 16% | ~17.4% |
| 9 | 36% | ~35.0% | 18% | ~19.6% |
| 10 | 40% (Corrected 38%) | ~38.4% | 20% | ~21.7% |
| 11 | 44% (Corrected 41%) | ~41.7% | 22% | ~23.9% |
| 12 | 48% (Corrected 44%) | ~45.0% | 24% | ~26.1% |
| 13 | 52% (Corrected 47%) | ~48.1% | 26% | ~28.3% |
| 14 | 56% (Corrected 50%) | ~51.2% | 28% | ~30.4% |
| 15 | 60% (Corrected 53%) | ~54.1% | 30% | ~32.6% |
Note: The Rule of 4 correction method is: when Outs > 8, Estimated Value ≈ (Outs * 4) - (Outs - 8). This correction improves the accuracy of the estimation.
Table 2: Common Pre-flop Probabilities
Understand the frequency of being dealt specific starting hands.
| Starting Hand Type | Probability (Approx.) | Approx. Frequency (Hands) |
|---|---|---|
| Any Pocket Pair | 5.9% | 17 |
| Pocket Aces (AA) | 0.45% | 221 |
| Pocket Kings (KK) | 0.45% | 221 |
| AA or KK | 0.9% | 110 |
| AK (Suited or Offsuit) | 1.2% | 83 |
| AQ or AJ (Suited or Offsuit) | 2.4% | 41 |
| Any Two Suited Cards | 23.5% | 4 |
| Any Suited Connectors | 3.9% | 25 |
Table 3: Common Flop Hit Probabilities
The probability of hitting specific hands or draws on the flop based on your starting hand.
| Starting Hand Type | Flop Outcome | Probability (Approx.) | Approx. Frequency (When holding this hand) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Pair | Hitting a Set | 11.8% | 8.5 |
| Two Unpaired Cards | Hitting at Least One Pair | 32.4% | 3 |
| Two Unpaired Cards | Hitting Two Pair | 2.0% | 50 |
| Two Suited Cards | Hitting a Flush | 0.84% | 119 |
| Two Suited Cards | Hitting a Flush Draw | 10.9% | 9 |
| Two Connectors | Hitting a Straight | 1.3% | 77 |
| Two Connectors | Hitting an Open-Ended Straight Draw (OESD) | 9.6% | 10.5 |
| Any Starting Hand | Flop is Paired | 16.9% | 6 |
| Any Starting Hand | Flop is Monotone (Three of the same suit) | 5.2% | 19 |