Chapter 5: Beyond Your Hand - Reading Your Opponent's "Range"

In the previous articles, we mastered the basics of flop play: board texture, calculating outs, pot odds, and implied odds. These are the "internal skills" based on our own hand. However, Texas Hold'em is a game against other people; just understanding yourself isn't enough. To truly improve, we must learn to read our opponents.

Experienced players don't try to guess their opponent's exact two hole cards. That's almost impossible and dangerous. Instead, they think about the series of hands an opponent might hold, which is known as a "Range".

Step One: Constructing the Preflop Range

The first step in reading an opponent's range starts preflop. You need to consider:

1. Position:

   • Players raising from Under The Gun (UTG) or early position usually have a tighter range, containing more strong hands like big pairs (AA-TT), strong Ax (AK, AQ, AJ), and some strong suited connectors.
   • Players raising or calling from the Button or Cutoff typically have a wider (Loose) range, including more types of hands like medium pairs, weaker Ax, speculative suited connectors, and suited gappers.
   • Players calling from the Blinds usually have the widest range, potentially containing many weak hands, but also possibly hidden strong hands (if they chose to slow-play).

2. Player Type:

   • Tight Player: Plays only a few strong hands preflop; their range is relatively easy to predict.
   • Loose Player: Plays many starting hands; their range is wide and hard to pin down.
   • Passive Player: Tends to call rather than bet or raise, might slow-play even with strong hands.
   • Aggressive Player: Likes to bet and raise; their range might contain more bluffs.

3. Preflop Action:

   • Limp: Usually indicates a weaker hand or a speculative hand wanting to see the flop cheaply (small pairs, suited connectors).
   • Raise: Indicates some strength, but the range width depends on position and player type.
   • Call a Raise: Often medium-strength hands (don't want to re-raise but don't want to fold), like medium pairs, strong Ax, good suited connectors.
   • 3-Bet (Re-raise): Usually indicates a very strong hand (value 3-bet, like QQ+, AK) or a bluff (to balance the range, like A5s, small pairs).
   • Call a 3-Bet: Strong hands, but perhaps not strong enough to 4-bet, or speculative hands with high potential.

Step Two: How Does the Flop Affect the Opponent's Range?

When the flop comes down, you need to evaluate how the board texture (refer to Chapter 2) interacts with the opponent's preflop range you've estimated.

• Practical Thought 1: Dry, High-Card Board

  • Situation: UTG (tight player) raises, you call on the Button with A♠ T♠, the Big Blind calls. Flop is K♦ 8♣ 3♠.
  • Range Analysis:
    • UTG's Range: Likely includes AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ. This K-high dry board likely hits their AK, KK, QQ, JJ (overpairs). Unlikely to have many draws.
    • Big Blind's Range: Very wide, could have Kx, 8x, 3x, or various random hands. This board might have hit their Kx or 8x.
  • Your Strategy: Facing a bet from UTG, your A-high is likely not strong enough to call. If UTG checks and the Big Blind bets, you probably need to fold, as this board hits parts of the Big Blind's wide range more easily.

• Practical Thought 2: Wet, Medium-Card Board

  • Situation: Middle Position (average player) raises, you call on the Button with 7♦ 7♣. Flop is T♥ 9♥ 6♠.
  • Range Analysis:
    • Middle Position Player's Range: Might include TT+, AQs+, KJs+, some suited connectors like T9s, 98s.
    • This flop is very wet! It connects perfectly with hands in the range like TT (top set), T9s (two pair), QJ (open-ended straight draw), 87s (open-ended straight draw), any hearts (flush draw).
  • Your Strategy: Your pocket 7s are very vulnerable on this board, just a mid-to-low pair. If the opponent bets, you should almost certainly fold, as their range contains too many hands that easily beat you or have high equity against you.

Step Three: Using Flop Actions to Narrow the Range

The opponent's actions on the flop provide more clues to help you further narrow their range:

• Check:
  • On a dry board, especially checking as the preflop raiser, might indicate a miss (giving up or planning to check-fold) or setting a trap (check-raising with a strong hand).
  • On a wet board, checking might indicate marginal strength (wanting pot control) or also a trap.
• Bet:
  • Value Bet: With strong made hands (top pair good kicker or better) or very strong draws.
  • Semi-Bluff: Betting with draws that have potential (flush draws, straight draws), hoping the opponent folds, or hitting the draw to win the pot.
  • Pure Bluff: Betting with "air" - hands with no real value.
  • Bet sizing is also important: Large bets usually represent stronger hands or strong draws (or bold bluffs), while small bets might indicate weaker value hands or probe bets.
• Call:
  • Usually indicates holding some hand strength: a decent made hand (middle pair, weak top pair) or a draw (getting the right odds). Unlikely to be a very strong hand (would usually raise) or complete air (would usually fold).
• Raise:
  • Usually indicates very strong hand strength: strong made hands (two pair, set, straight, flush) or very strong combo draws.
  • Could also be a pure bluff, but it's risky.

Practical Reconsideration: Connecting with Source Examples

• 55 on a 2, 6, 5 flop (you have a set): The opponent (holding KK) called a large raise and went all-in on the 2 turn (making a full house). His actions indicate his range consists mainly of strong hands. The range for calling a large raise on the flop might include overpairs (like KK, QQ, AA), strong draws (if the board allows), or occasionally slow-played 66. When the turn is 2 and he shoves, his range narrows further to very strong hands like 66, 22 (highly unlikely), or he's mistakenly overvaluing his overpair KK.
• AsQs on an Ah, 7s, Td flop (you have top pair, top kicker): The AJ player becomes very aggressive, constantly raising. This indicates he believes his hand is strong. His range clearly includes Ax. The aggressive raises could come from two pair (AT), straight draws (KQ, QJ), or his overconfident AJ (thinking his kicker is good enough). The AQ player correctly reads that the opponent's range might include weaker Ax hands and calls down with the better kicker.
• 9dTd on an Ad 8h Js flop (you have an open-ended straight draw + backdoor flush draw): The source material notes this flop is dangerous because many hands can beat you. The opponent's range could include:
  • Ax (top pair, many combos)
  • Two pair (AJ, A8)
  • Sets (AA, 88, JJ)
  • Stronger straight draws (KQ, KT)
  • Even possibly already made straights (KT, KQ if played loosely preflop) The number of potential hand combinations that beat you is large, which is precisely why the source emphasizes this flop is more dangerous. Calculating outs and odds is important, but understanding how many hands in the opponent's range can beat you is equally crucial.