Chapter 3: The 'Flow' and 'Force' at the Table - Discussing the Mysterious Momentum

Having played cards for so many years, I've seen plenty of strange things. Sometimes you sit there feeling like a poker god. No matter what cards you get, you hit what you need at the right time, opponents can't push you off pots, and the chips magically roll your way. That feeling, smooth sailing, unstoppable, winning until your hands are sore, radiating an 'aura of dominance'. This is the so-called 'upswing', or you could say, you've grasped the 'momentum' (勢 - shi) at the table.

Conversely, there are always those days when you feel the whole world is against you. Your starting hands are all trash. When you occasionally get a good hand, you either get outdrawn or run into a bigger hand. Bluffs always get caught, value bets get no callers. You're playing fine, but your chips keep dwindling. That frustrating, powerless feeling, like being under a dark cloud, unable to do anything right. This is the unlucky 'downswing', feeling like your 'qi' (氣 - energy/flow) is completely suppressed.

Rigorous mathematicians and GTO believers will tell you: all of this is just **Variance** at play. Poker is fundamentally a game of probability, and short-term fluctuations in results are inevitable. Feeling 'hot' is just catching the upward part of the normal distribution curve; feeling 'cold' is just bad luck, landing in the downward section of the curve. The so-called 'qi' and 'shi' are psychological effects, the result of the human brain's inability to accept randomness, forcing an explanation onto fluctuations.

From a purely mathematical perspective, this is correct. Each hand is an independent event; past results do not affect the probability of future hands. Getting bad beat in the last hand doesn't mean your probability of winning the next hand increases or decreases.

However, at a real poker table, especially among flesh-and-blood human players, is it really just about 'math'? As an old hand who's navigated the gambling seas for years, I feel it's not that simple.

The Magic of Confidence: Momentum's Psychological Engine

I believe the reason Momentum feels so real largely stems from **psychological factors**, especially changes in **confidence**.

When you're on an upswing, winning repeatedly, your confidence skyrockets. You become bolder, trust your judgment more, appear calmer when bluffing, and more decisive with value bets. This confident state itself makes you play better and make correct decisions more easily. At the same time, your opponents can sense your 'momentum'; they might become more wary of you, hesitant to challenge you, making it easier for you to steal pots or win before showdown. This creates a positive feedback loop: Win -> Increased Confidence -> Play Better / Opponents Fear You More -> Keep Winning.

Conversely, when you're on a downswing, your confidence takes a severe hit. You start doubting your judgment, become hesitant, afraid to act when you should, yet reluctant to fold when necessary. You might play too conservatively, missing opportunities; or become reckless trying to recoup losses, making more mistakes. Your opponents can also sense your slump; they might attack you more frequently, testing your limits. This leads to a negative feedback loop: Lose -> Confidence Erodes -> Play Worse / Opponents Attack More -> Keep Losing.

The Contagious Nature of Table Atmosphere

Momentum also has a certain 'contagious' quality. When one player at the table is running particularly hot, winning large pots consecutively, the entire table's atmosphere is affected.

• Effect on the hot player: Their confidence soars, as mentioned before.
• Effect on other players: Some will choose to avoid confrontation, trying not to clash with them; some will feel jealous or defiant, trying to 'stop' them, potentially making mistakes by playing too specifically against them; others might feel pressured seeing someone win consistently, affecting their own play.

Similarly, if there's a 'jinx' at the table, losing badly, looking pale, and constantly complaining, that negative emotion can also affect others, making the whole game feel dull or tense.

How to Handle Momentum?

Since the impact of Momentum is real (at least psychologically), how to respond becomes crucial.

• When on an Upswing:
  • Stay Calm, Press Your Advantage: Seize the opportunity presented by your confidence and opponents' wariness. Continue playing your A-game. But beware of overconfidence leading to recklessness; don't start playing hands outside your normal range.
  • Observe Keenly: Pay attention to how opponents react to your strong run and adjust your strategy accordingly.
• When on a Downswing:
  • Accept Reality, Control Losses: Recognize this is normal variance. Don't try to fight 'luck' with sheer will. The primary goal is to stop losing more, not to win it back immediately.
  • Return to Basics, Simplify Decisions: Abandon fancy plays and marginal bluffs. Focus on solid, fundamental poker. Reduce decision complexity to minimize potential errors.
  • Adjust Mindset, Set Stop-Losses: If you feel tilted or have lost a certain amount (e.g., a predetermined stop-loss), leave the table decisively! Take a break, regroup, and come back fresh. This isn't cowardice; it's a fundamental skill for professional players.
  • Focus on the Process: Constantly remind yourself that if your decisions are correct, results will eventually regress to the mean in the long run. Don't let short-term bad luck undermine your self-belief.
• Observing Others' Momentum:
  • Identify the 'hot' players and the 'cold' (or tilted) players at the table.
  • Develop targeted strategies: Should you avoid the hot player, or exploit the tilted player's instability?
  • Maintain independent thinking; don't be intimidated or thrown off your game by others' momentum.

Conclusion: Respect Variance, But Control Yourself