Chapter 4: Fishing for the Big One - Implied Odds & Reverse Implied Odds

2025-04-30 26

In the last chapter, we learned how to use Pot Odds to determine if a current call is profitable. The golden rule is: Actual Equity > Minimum Equity Required by Pot Odds, then call!

However, the world of poker isn't just about the immediate situation; there's also poetry and the distant future... uh, no, there's future potential profit!

Recall "Scenario 1" from Chapter 3:

Your hand: A♠ K♠
Flop: T♠ 7♠ 2♣ (You have 9 flush outs, equity approx. 18%)
Pot is $20, opponent bets $10 (half pot).
Pot Odds are 3:1, requiring minimum equity of 25%.
Conclusion: Actual Equity (18%) < Required Equity (25%), based purely on pot odds, you should fold.

But experienced players might say: "Wait! You can call with this hand!"

Why? Because they are considering Implied Odds.

What are Implied Odds? – The Angler's Wisdom

Implied odds, as the name suggests, are the "hidden" odds. They refer to: If you successfully hit your draw on a later street (turn or river), how much extra money do you expect to win from your opponent?

Let's use the clothes shopping analogy again:

You bought that piece of clothing for $500 at half price. The next day, the mall has a promotion where you can enter a draw with your receipt for a chance to win a $300 gift card! Although winning the draw isn't guaranteed, this potential extra benefit (the $300 gift card) makes your purchase decision even better value. This is the feeling of implied odds.

Pot odds only consider the money currently in the pot, while implied odds also factor in the money you might win in the future.

When direct pot odds aren't enough to justify a call (like the A♠ K♠ example above), if the implied odds are good enough, calling can become the correct (+EV) decision. You're making a relatively "unprofitable" call now to gamble for a potentially much larger future reward. This is "casting a long line to catch a big fish."

How to Estimate Implied Odds? – This Requires Some "People Reading" Skills

Estimating implied odds is much more subjective than calculating pot odds. There's no precise formula; it relies more on your judgment of the game situation and your opponent:

How strong is your hand's potential?
- Strong, Hidden Draws usually have better implied odds. Examples include sets (three of a kind with a pocket pair) or non-obvious straight draws. It's hard for opponents to realize you've hit your hand, making them more likely to pay you off.
- Obvious Draws have worse implied odds. For example, if there are three suited cards on the board and you're drawing to a flush, opponents will be very cautious if a fourth suited card appears, making it hard to win much extra money. Similarly, drawing to a J-T straight on an A-K-Q board.
Who is your opponent?
- Calling Station : These players love to call regardless of your bet size. They are the best source of implied odds! Once you hit your hand, they are very likely to pay you off significantly.
- Tight/Weak Player : They are very cautious. If danger signs appear on the board (like a completed straight or flush), they will easily fold. Implied odds are usually poor against them.
- Aggressive Player : They might continue betting aggressively even after you hit your hand (e.g., paying off your set with their top pair), but they might also hit the brakes if it's obvious you've made your hand. Requires specific analysis.
- Observant Player : Good players pay attention to board texture and your actions. If you hit an obvious draw, they are unlikely to pay you off.
What are the Stack Depths?
- Deep Stacks: Implied odds are truly meaningful when both players have large stacks. You have enough room to bet on later streets and win a significant amount from your opponent.
- Short Stacks: If your opponent has very few chips left (e.g., only enough for one or two more bets), even if you hit your hand, you won't win much extra money. Implied odds are almost zero.
What is your Position?
- In Position: You act after your opponent, allowing you to see their reaction before making your decision. This makes it easier to control the pot size and extract value when you hit your draw, thus improving implied odds.
- Out of Position: You have to act first, making it harder to judge the situation and maximize value.

Simply put, good implied odds usually occur when: your draw is well-hidden + your opponent is relatively loose/a calling station + both players have deep stacks + you are in position.

Revised Decision: Calling Standard with Implied Odds

When direct pot odds are insufficient, you need to estimate: How much extra money do you need to win after hitting your draw to make this call profitable?

A simplified approach is to add the expected future winnings to the current pot and recalculate a "modified" pot odds.

Back to the A♠ K♠ example:

You need to call $10, the pot is $20, opponent bets $10.
Direct pot odds are 3:1 (requiring 25% equity), your equity is only 18%. Not enough.
How much "implied" money do you need to make the call worthwhile?
You need the odds to be around 18% (approx. 4.5 : 1 odds).
(Current Pot $20 + Opponent's Bet $10 + Future Winnings X) : Your Call $10 ≈ 4.5 : 1
(30 + X) / 10 ≈ 4.5
30 + X ≈ 45
X ≈ $15

This means you need to expect to win at least an additional $15 from your opponent on the turn or river after hitting your spade for the flop call to be reasonable.

Now you need to judge: Is your opponent a calling station? Are the stacks deep enough? Will they pay off your future bets? If the answer is yes, then calling based on implied odds is wise, even if the direct pot odds aren't sufficient.

Beware! The Hidden Killer - Reverse Implied Odds

Where there is light, there is darkness. Just as there are implied odds, there is its opposite – Reverse Implied Odds (RIO).

Reverse Implied Odds refer to: When you hit your draw, not only do you fail to win money, but you might actually lose even more money because your opponent happens to make a better hand.

This situation typically occurs when:

Your draw is relatively weak and easily dominated.
- For example, you're drawing to a straight with 8♠ 7♠ on a T♠ 9♠ 5♣ board (only a gutshot, 4 outs, not 6 as written in original). If the turn is J♠, you make your straight, but any opponent holding a Q♠ has made a higher straight. (Correcting the example logic slightly for clarity - the original example card T♠ 9♠ 5♣ with 8♠ 7♠ is a gutshot draw needing a 6, not J. Let's assume the draw was to a J with Q high straight). Let's use a better example: You hold 87 on a T-9-5 board. If a 6 comes, you make a straight, but if a J comes, anyone with a Q has a better straight.
- For example, you're drawing to a flush with T♥ 9♥ on a K♥ Q♥ 5♦ board. If the river is A♥, you make your flush, but any opponent holding J♥ or a higher heart has a better flush.
The board texture itself is dangerous and prone to making very strong hands.
- For example, the board is J♣ T♣ 9♣, and you're drawing to the nut flush with A♣ 2♣. If you call your opponent's bet and the river comes 8♣, the board makes a straight flush! Anyone holding Q♣ or K♣ beats you. Although this is a low-probability event, it exists.
- When the board is paired, be especially careful drawing to straights or flushes, as your opponent might already have a Full House.

In situations with high reverse implied odds, even if the direct pot odds look good, you should be very cautious, perhaps even leaning towards folding. Because if you hit your hand, you might fall into a bigger trap and lose far more chips than expected.

Which draws tend to have high reverse implied odds?

Weak flush draws: For example, drawing to a flush with 7♥ 6♥ on an A♥ K♥ 9♠ board. Even if you hit, it's a small flush, easily beaten by Kx or Ax flushes.
Straight/Flush draws on paired boards: As mentioned, your opponent might already have a full house.
Drawing to the "idiot end" of a straight: For example, on a Q-J-T board, drawing to a straight with 98. Any Kx beats you. Drawing to an open-ended straight (e.g., with K9) is much safer.

Chapter Summary: High Beams and Double-Edged Sword

Implied odds and reverse implied odds are crucial supplements to pot odds. They require us to look beyond the immediate situation and evaluate future potential gains and risks.

Implied Odds : When direct pot odds are insufficient, consider how much more you can win in the future if you hit your hand. Best suited for drawing to strong, hidden hands, especially with deep stacks and against loose opponents. They are your "high beams," helping you see potential profits further down the road.
Reverse Implied Odds : Consider whether hitting your hand might actually cause you to lose more because your opponent has a better hand. Be especially wary when drawing to weak hands, obvious hands, or on dangerous board textures. They are a "double-edged sword," reminding you that potential high rewards also come with high risks.

Accurately estimating implied and reverse implied odds requires significant experience and understanding of your opponents. However, understanding these concepts allows you to make more comprehensive, long-term decisions, avoiding missed opportunities due to focusing only on immediate odds, or falling into obvious traps.

In the next chapter, we'll learn a very practical technique that allows you to quickly estimate your equity at the table without needing a calculator every time – the famous "Rule of 2 and 4." Ready to make your calculations take flight?