Chapter 2: Know Yourself and Your Enemy (Part 1): Counting Your Outs - How Much Hope Does Your Hand Have?

2025-04-30 77

In the last chapter, we talked about the importance of probability and had a preliminary introduction to the concept of "Outs". To briefly review, outs are the "lifelines" still hidden in the deck that can "upgrade" your hand and give you a high probability of winning the pot.

Counting outs might sound simple, but in a real game, quickly and accurately counting your outs while considering potential risks is the foundation for making correct decisions. If you don't even know how many "good cards" can help you, then calculating odds and making decisions later will be like a blind man trying to describe an elephant.

In this chapter, we will systematically learn how to calculate the number of outs for various common drawing situations, and also remind everyone of some easily overlooked "traps".

A Deeper Look at "Outs": Which Cards Really Count?

Let's emphasize again: An out must be a card that gives you a high probability of winning. If a card comes that changes your hand from Ace-high to a pair of 3s, but your opponent likely has a top pair or an overpair, then that 3 cannot be considered a valid out.

The core idea of counting outs is: Find all the cards that can make your target strong hand, then subtract the cards you've already seen (your hand + community cards).

Mastering Outs Calculation for Common Draws

Let's look at some of the most common drawing situations:

1. Flush Draw: This is one of the most common and easiest draws to count. You have two suited cards in your hand, and two more of the same suit appear on the flop.

Calculation Method: There are 13 cards of each suit. Subtract the 2 in your hand and the 2 on the flop. 13 - 2 - 2 = 9 outs.
Example:
- Your hand: K♠ Q♠
- The flop: 7♠ 2♠ J♣
- Your goal: Make a flush.
- Outs: There are 9 spades (♠) left in the deck.

2. Open-Ended Straight Draw (OESD): Your hand and the community cards form four consecutive cards, needing a card at either end to complete a straight.

Calculation Method: You need one of 4 cards at each end of the straight. 4 + 4 = 8 outs.
Example:
- Your hand: T♣ 9♣
- The flop: 8♦ 7♠ K♥
- Your cards form 7-8-9-T. You need a J (to make 7-8-9-T-J) or a 6 (to make 6-7-8-9-T) to complete the straight.
- Outs: There are 4 Js and 4 6s in the deck. Total of 8 outs.

3. Gutshot Straight Draw: Your cards form a straight with a gap in the middle.

Calculation Method: Only the 4 cards of the missing rank can complete your straight. So, you have 4 outs.
Example:
- Your hand: 7♥ 6♥
- The flop: T♠ 9♣ 3♦
- Your cards form 6-7...9-T. You need an 8 (6-7-8-9-T).
- Outs: There are 4 8s in the deck. Total of 4 outs.

4. Pocket Pair needing a Set: You have a pair in your hand and hope to hit a set.

Calculation Method: You need one of the remaining two cards of the same rank. So, you have 2 outs.
Example:
- Your hand: 8♣ 8♠
- The flop: A♥ K♦ 7♠
- Your goal: Hit 888.
- Outs: There are 2 8s left in the deck.

5. Combo Draw: Fulfilling Multiple Wishes at Once? This is a powerful draw in real games, with multiple possibilities to make a hand.

Calculation Method: Calculate the outs for each draw separately, then add them, but be sure to subtract the overlapping cards!
Example:
- Your hand: K♥ Q♥
- The flop: T♥ 9♥ 3♠
- Your draws:
  - Flush draw (need a heart ♥): 13 - 2 (hand) - 2 (flop) = 9 heart outs.
  - Gutshot draw (need a J): 4 Js, so 4 straight outs.
- Totaling up: 9 (flush) + 4 (straight) = 13 outs.
- Check for overlaps: Wait! The J♥ makes both a flush and a straight (even a straight flush!). We counted it twice in our separate calculations!
- Correction: Total Outs = Flush Outs + Straight Outs - Overlapping Outs = 9 + 4 - 1 = 12 outs.

Counting Tip: When counting combo draws, the easiest way is to count one draw first (e.g., 9 flush outs), then count the outs for the other draw that are not of the same suit (e.g., for the straight draw, there are 3 non-heart Js). This way, 9 + 3 = 12 outs, and you won't double-count.

Beware of "Tainted Outs" - The "Good Cards" That Hurt You

Counting your outs is just the first step. More importantly, you need to judge the quality of these outs. Some cards, while improving your hand, might make your opponent's hand even stronger, even strong enough to beat you. These are "Tainted" or "Dirty" Outs.

Common situations for tainted outs:

Making a bigger hand for your opponent:
- Example 1: You have a flush draw, but your out pairs the board. If your opponent has a set, they will make a Full House, and your flush is useless.
  - Your hand: K♣ 3♣
  - The flop: Q♣ T♣ Q♥
  - Your outs: 9 clubs (♣). But if a club comes that pairs the board, and your opponent has a set of Queens, making a Full House, your flush is no good.
- Example 2: You have a straight draw, but your out brings a third card of the same suit on the board. If your opponent has a flush draw, your straight will lose.
  - Your hand: 8♦ 7♣
  - The flop: 6♠ 5♠ 2♦
  - The turn: K♠
  - You need a 9 or a 4 to complete your straight. But if the river is the 9♠ or the 4♠, you make your straight, but any opponent with two spades now has a flush.
You make your hand but are still dominated:
- Example: You have a King-high flush draw, and your opponent might have an Ace-high flush draw.
  - Your hand: K♥ 7♥
  - The flop: 6♥ T♥ 2♠
  - You think you have 9 heart outs. But if your opponent has A♥X♥ (where X is any heart), you lose even if a heart hits. You need to discount your effective outs based on your opponent's range.

How to handle tainted outs?

Identify Risks: Be extra cautious when the board is paired, has three cards of the same suit, or three connected cards.
Consider Opponent's Range: Think about your opponent's possible hands and judge how likely your outs are to help them.
Discounting Outs: If you think some of your outs are tainted, you need to remove them from your total count or apply a discount (e.g., thinking a card only has a 50% chance of winning for you). For example, in the King-high flush draw case, against a tight opponent who might have an Ace-high flush draw, you might discount your non-Ace heart outs, or even not count them at all.

Safety First: Don't be too optimistic when counting outs. Always assess potential risks; being conservative is better than being blindly confident.

Practice: Let's Count!

Talk is cheap, let's try calculating the number of outs in the following scenarios (assuming you need to hit your draw to win):

Your hand: J♣ T♣ The flop: K♣ 9♠ 2♣ Your draw type? How many outs? (Hint: Flush draw + Gutshot straight draw)
Your hand: 3♣ 3♠ The flop: A♥ 6♦ Q♣ Your draw type? How many outs? (Hint: You need a set to have a high chance of winning)
Your hand: 9♦ 8♦ The flop: Q♦ 7♠ 6♦ Your draw type? How many outs? Any tainted outs? (Hint: Open-ended straight draw + Flush draw)

(Answers will be revealed at the end of the article)

Chapter Summary: A Solid Foundation for Accurate Calculation

Accurately counting outs is the foundation for all subsequent probability-related decisions (like calculating pot odds and implied odds). Through this chapter, you should have mastered:

How to calculate outs for common draws.
How to handle double-counting in combo draws.
How to identify and assess the risk of "tainted outs".

Mastering the skill of counting outs requires a lot of practice. It is recommended that you consciously calculate the number and quality of outs for every draw you have when you play (especially online, where you can use tracking software) or when you review your hands.

Now that we've counted our outs, we know how much "hope" we have. The next step is to see if the "price" we pay for this "hope" is worth it. This leads to our next topic—Pot Odds. Are you ready to calculate if this is a good deal?