Chapter 2: Know Yourself and Your Enemy (Part 1): Counting Your Outs - How Much Hope Does Your Hand Have?

Let's emphasize again: Outs must be cards that make you highly likely to win. If a card comes that improves your hand from Ace-high to a pair of 3s, but your opponent likely has top pair or an overpair, then that 3 cannot be counted as one of your effective outs.

The core idea of counting outs is: Identify all the cards that can complete your target winning hand, then subtract the cards you've already seen (your hole cards + community cards).

Quick Tip for Counting Combo Draws: The easiest way is often to count the outs for one draw first (e.g., 9 flush outs), then count the outs for the *other* draw that are *not* the same suit (e.g., for the straight draw, count the non-heart Js and 8s - there are 3 of each, totaling 6). Then 9 + 6 = 15 outs, avoiding double counting.

Counting the number of outs is just the first step; more importantly, you need to assess the quality of those outs. Some cards, while improving your hand, might also improve your opponent's hand even more, potentially causing you to lose. These are called "Tainted Outs" or "Dirty Outs."

Common Situations with Tainted Outs:

1. Outs That Complete a Better Hand for Your Opponent:

   • Example 1: You have a flush draw, but one of your outs also pairs the board. If your opponent happens to have trips (a set or trips made with board cards), they will make a Full House, rendering your flush useless.
     • Your Hand: A♣ K♣
     • Flop: Q♣ T♣ Q♥
     • Your Outs: 9 remaining clubs (♣). However, if a non-club Queen (like Q♦) or Ten (like T♥) comes, the board pairs. If your opponent holds Qx or Tx (especially trips like QQ or TT), they make a Full House, beating your potential flush even if a club comes later. (Note: The original example was slightly confusing; this clarifies the risk of the board pairing).
   • Example 2: You have a straight draw, but one of your outs puts three cards of the same suit on the board. If your opponent happens to have a flush draw, your straight will lose.
     • Your Hand: 8♦ 7♦
     • Flop: 6♠ 5♠ 2♦
     • Turn: K♠
     • You need a 9 or a 4 to complete your straight (8 outs). However, if the river is the 9♠ or the 4♠, although you make your straight, the board now has three spades. Any opponent holding two spades makes a flush and beats you. These two spade outs are tainted.

2. Making Your Hand, But Still Being Dominated:

   • Example: You have a King-high flush draw, but your opponent might have an Ace-high flush draw.
     • Your Hand: K♥ 7♥
     • Flop: A♥ T♥ 2♠
     • You might think you have 9 heart outs. But if your opponent holds A♥ X♥ (where X is any other heart), even if a heart hits the river, you lose to their higher flush. You need to discount your outs based on your opponent's likely range. In this case, against a likely Ace-high flush draw, only the K♥ might not be a winning out (if they have A♥Q♥ for example), and other hearts are good unless they specifically have A♥ plus that heart. You must assess the likelihood based on action.

How to Handle Tainted Outs?

• Identify Risks: Be especially vigilant when the board shows a pair, three cards of the same suit, or three connected cards.
• Consider Opponent's Range: Think about the possible hands your opponent might have and assess how likely your outs are to help them more than you.
• Discounting Outs: If you believe some of your outs are tainted, you need to remove them from your total count or apply a discount (e.g., assume a specific out only gives you a 50% chance of winning). For instance, in the K-high flush draw example above, facing a tight opponent who likely holds an Ace-high flush draw, you might heavily discount or even completely ignore the non-Ace heart outs.

Safety First: Don't be overly optimistic when counting outs. Always assess potential risks; being conservative is better than being blindly confident.

Talk is cheap, let's practice! Try calculating the number of outs in the following scenarios (assume you need to hit your draw to win):

1. Your Hand: J♣ T♣ Flop: Q♣ 9♠ 2♣ What are your draws? How many outs? (Hint: Flush draw + Gutshot straight draw)

2. Your Hand: 7♥ 7♠ Flop: A♥ K♥ Q♥ What are your draws? How many outs? (Hint: You likely need a full house or quads to win)

3. Your Hand: 9♦ 8♦ Flop: T♦ 7♠ 6♦ What are your draws? How many outs? Are any tainted? (Hint: OESD + Flush draw, but the board has potential dangers)

(Answers will be provided at the end)

Accurately counting outs is the foundation for all subsequent probability-related decisions (like calculating pot odds and implied odds). Through this chapter, you should have learned:

• How to calculate outs for common draws.
• How to handle overlapping outs in combo draws.
• How to identify and assess the risk of "tainted outs."

Mastering the skill of counting outs requires a lot of practice. It's recommended that when you play (especially online, where tracking software can assist) or during hand reviews, you consciously calculate the number and quality of outs for every draw you encounter.

Now that we've counted our outs, we know how much "hope" we have. The next step is to see if the "price" we have to pay for that "hope" is worth it. This leads us to the topic of our next chapter – Pot Odds. Are you ready to figure out if the bet is profitable?