Chapter 5: Missed Opportunities – Folding When You Should Call/Raise
After experiencing the trials of "Passive Play" and "Aggressive Collisions," we arrive at another area of mistakes that makes one sigh with regret – Missed Opportunities . This refers to situations where opportunities that should have been seized slip away due to momentary hesitation, timidity, or misjudgment. Specifically, these correspond to Sklansky's classification of Folding when you should call , and Folding when you should raise .
Unlike "Stubborn Calling," this error doesn't directly cause you to lose a large amount of chips, but it is equally fatal because it causes you to miss out on pots and profits you could have won. Accumulating over time, your profitability will be significantly reduced in the long run.
Why do we miss opportunities?
- Excessive Fear of Opponent's Strong Hands (Fear of Monsters): Seeing danger signals on the board, or facing strong action from an opponent, immediately assuming they hold the nuts, thus folding a hand that could have won.
- Focusing too much on absolute hand strength, ignoring relative strength (Ignoring Relative Strength): Folding directly because the hand "doesn't look big enough," without considering that the hand might actually be relatively strong given the current board and the opponent's likely range.
- Miscalculating or Ignoring Odds (Miscalculating/Ignoring Odds): When facing a bet, failing to correctly calculate pot odds, or folding a drawing hand out of fear even when the odds are favorable.
- Being Too Conservative / "Nitty": Playing too tight-weak, only willing to commit chips with absolute monster hands, giving up many marginal but profitable calling or semi-bluff raising opportunities.
- Missing Opportunities to Bluff Catch (Missing Bluff Catches): The opponent might clearly be bluffing, but choosing to fold because one's own hand strength isn't "top-tier".
Classic Case: Hachem's Fold of the Century (Joe Hachem vs. Jordan Morgan, 2007 WPT Championship)
Speaking of the most famous "potentially wrong" folds in poker history, the hand played by 2005 WSOP Champion Joe Hachem in the 2007 WPT $25,000 buy-in event definitely ranks high.
- Background: Early in the tournament, blinds 100/200, stacks are deep.
- Pre-flop: Jordan Morgan (considered a relatively tight player at the time) raised to 700 from middle position. 3 players called, including Hachem.
- Flop: A♣ 7♦ 4♠ (rainbow). Everyone checked.
- Turn: 6♥ (Board: A♣ 7♦ 4♠ 6♥). Morgan bet 2,000. Others folded. Hachem quickly raised to 7,000. Morgan thought and re-raised (3-bet) to 12,000. Hachem re-re-raised (4-bet) to 22,000! Morgan thought again, then made a 5-bet (raising another 27,000), effectively putting Hachem all-in.
- Hachem's Dilemma: Hachem held 5♣ 3♣! On the board of A♣ 7♦ 4♠ 6♥, he had the Second Nuts Straight! The only hand that could beat him was 8♥ 5♥ (or similar combos like 8♠ 5♠) making the Nut Straight.
Facing Morgan's 5-bet all-in, Hachem went into the tank for several minutes. He even asked Morgan, "Do you have 8-5, kid?" Finally, after Morgan called the clock, Hachem shockingly revealed his 5♣ 3♣ and chose to fold! The crowd was stunned.
Why did Hachem's fold cause huge controversy?
This fold was considered by many professional players and commentators to be potentially one of the worst folds in history (at least at the time), mainly based on the following points:
- Extremely Strong Hand: Hachem held the second nuts. In the vast majority of situations, this is a super strong hand.
- Low Probability of the Nuts: The only hand that beat Hachem, 8-5, is an unconventional starting hand for a relatively tight player from middle position, making its likelihood inherently low.
- Opponent Range Analysis: Morgan's actions (especially the turn 3-bet and 5-bet) were more likely to represent a set (AA, 77, 66, 44), a strong two pair (A7, A6, A4), or even top pair with some draws (like A♥ x♥). Hachem could beat all these hands.
- Potentially Favorable Odds: Although the exact stack sizes aren't recalled, the pot was already huge. Morgan's final raise relative to the pot likely offered Hachem sufficient pot odds to call, even if he occasionally ran into the extremely small probability of 8-5.
- The Cost of Folding: Folding such a powerful hand meant giving up a massive pot. Even though Hachem still had a considerable stack after folding, missing such an opportunity to win a large amount of chips could be fatal in a tournament.
Ironic Outcome and Lessons:
Interestingly, Morgan later revealed his hand – pocket Aces (A♠ A♥)! He had top set. Even more dramatically, the WPT's "Rabbit Cam" (which shows what cards would have come if the hand continued) revealed the river would have been an A! Meaning, if Hachem had called, the river would have given Morgan Four of a Kind, beating Hachem's straight.
So, was Hachem's fold correct? Looking at the result, he "luckily" dodged a bullet. But this is precisely the fallacy of "results-oriented thinking"! The correctness of a poker decision should be based on the information and probabilities available at the moment the decision is made, not on subsequent events that were unpredictable at the time.
Based on the information at the time: Hachem held the second nuts, faced an opponent unlikely to hold the nuts, whose range contained many hands Hachem could beat, and likely had good pot odds. From this perspective, folding was very likely a negative EV decision, a typical example of "Folding when you should call" (Error 5), even though the outcome was unexpectedly favorable for him.
Humorous Moment: Mutterings After Folding
"Phew... close call, my gut told me he had the Nuts!" (Actually just scared) "Forget it, live to fight another day, let him have this pot." (Missed opportunity) "If I'd known he had AA, I would have... uh, actually, I probably still should have called?" (Lost in thought)
How to seize those opportunities that should be yours?
- Trust the Math: When pot odds clearly tell you that you can call with a draw, don't fold out of fear.
- Evaluate Relative Strength: Don't just look at the absolute value of your hand; judge its relative strength in the current situation by considering the board structure and opponent's range.
- Consider Opponent's Bluffing Frequency: Against aggressive opponents who bluff frequently, widen your bluff-catching calling range appropriately.
- Don't Fear Getting "Sucked Out": As long as your decision is mathematically correct (+EV), even if you occasionally get unlucky and are overtaken by an opponent, you will be profitable in the long run.
- Practice Semi-Bluff Raising: When you have a draw, sometimes folding and calling are not the best options. A strong raise (semi-bluff) might allow you to take down the pot immediately, or win more when you hit.
Playing tight, nitty, and conservative certainly helps you lose less, but it also makes it hard to win big. Learning to bravely call or raise at the right moments is crucial to seizing those key opportunities that determine victory. In the next chapter, we will explore those moments of "being too clever for one's own good," looking at how overplaying can lead you into traps of your own making.