Tip # 42 of 52, Bet with a toss-up hand if you are first to act.

2025-02-26 40

There are several good reasons why betting is correct if you feel you have about a 50 percent chance of holding the best hand. Here are three.

  1. There is a small chance that an opponent might fold the best hand. This won't happen very often, but you gain the pot when it does. You will never win a pot this way if you check.
  2. You might bet a toss-up hand and get a call from a slightly worse hand. Had you checked, it is unlikely that your opponent would have bet his hand. However, he will probably call you. This is another situation in which you can win a bet on the river by wagering that you could not gain by checking.
  3. Other times, your opponent has you edged in the hand. However, his hand isn't exactly a monster, and he may believe that he is in jeopardy if you bet. For this reason, he is unlikely to raise, but will call. You lose one bet those times you bet the losing hand on the river. If you check, though, this same opponent would likely bet his hand. Since you have a toss-up hand, you call, costing you the same single bet that you would lose by betting the hand yourself. That is, it doesn't matter whether you check or bet in this situation, because you always lose exactly one bet.

Of the three possibilities, you gain by betting in two of them, and break even in the other. Overall, then, you are better off betting when first to act on the river if you estimate your chances of winning the pot at around 50 percent. You often bet losing hands by employing this strategy, but you also win extra bets and even the occasional extra pot that your more timid opponents do not. And, you can take comfort in knowing that many of those losing bets you make would often have become losing calls anyway had you opted to check. Thus, you're not really losing more bets than you would have by not betting your toss-up hands, and you're profiting by all the winning bets.

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