Tip # 39 of 52, When to fold on the river if someone else has bet and you are last to act.
Say an opponent has bet and you are the last player standing between him and the pot. It is now your job to determine the likelihood that you hold the best hand. To do this, you must consider not only your hand, but also the way the hand has played out. If your opponent has bet the hand all the way through, and there were no real draws out there, it is pretty likely that he can beat middle pair. On the other hand, if you were the bettor, and now your opponent bets the river when a flush card appears, you need to consider how likely it is that he has drawn out on you.
In this situation, you can put your hand's chances into four categories:
- best hand: you're 85 percent certain you have the winner
- toss-up hand: you have about a 50-50 chance of winning
- longshot hand: you have less than a 50 percent chance of holding the winner
- busted draw: you have virtually no chance of holding the winner
You should always at least call when you hold what you consider to be either the best hand or a toss-up hand. Since your chances of winning are 50 percent or better, you are getting the correct price from the pot to make the call. The more certain you are that you have the best hand, the more likely you should raise, particularly if there are some logical hands that your opponent might have with which to call.
The water gets murkier when you hold a longshot hand. Here, you need to know the size of the pot, so you can accurately assess the price you are getting. For example, if there is $72 in the pot and it costs you $8 to call, the pot is laying you a price of 9-to-1. Your hand needs to win only one time in 10 for calling to be correct. So, not only should you know how much is in the center, you should also be able to make a good estimation of your chances of winning the pot. With practice, you can develop this skill.
The lesson of longshot hands is that you can call fairly often on the river if you feel you have a decent chance of winning the pot. You need not be correct every time, or even most of the time, for calling to be the proper play. At the same time, make sure you are realistic. Don't throw money away in situations in which your opponent is 95 percent certain to have you beat. Experience and focus in the game help you become skilled at accurately determining your chances of winning the pot.