Online No-Limit Texas Hold'em Poker for Beginners - Part 6
Post-Flop Hand Odds
Calculating Outs
You've started with a good hand. You think you have a pretty good chance of winning with it, depending on the flop. And there it is. The flop changes the dynamic of the game. Every hand is a good, or great, hand if they get the right flop. But, you don't always flop the nuts. You rarely do. So you have to make do with what you now have.
You possibly have two more cards coming to help you, or hurt you, and you need to know the odds of that help, or hurt, happening. That is what hand odds is all about.
Hand odds are your percentage chance of getting the card you think will win the hand for you. If at all possible, hope to draw to the nuts. But that's not always possible. If you have pocket 9's and the flop comes Q 4 2, you most likely won't be drawing to the nuts.
But, since there wasn't a raise pre-flop, you are pretty sure trips 9's will win it. If another Q shows up, not only won't you be drawing to the nuts, you may be drawing dead. Then again, the guy with the Q most likely doesn't have QQ as he didn't raise pre-flop. So, if the other Q does show, then a 9 on the river, you've made your boat, which most likely will be good enough.
So it doesn't have to be the nuts you are drawing to, just good enough to win. You need to be able to analyze your chances of succeeding with your draw, and that's what this section is all about.
I'm going to post the "standard" hand odds chart. Don't put all your faith into these percentages. I will explain a bit about them below. I will also show you how to calculate your outs and compute your own odds.
Outs and Odds Chart
Outs and Odds
|
Number
of Outs |
After Flop
Two Cards to Come |
After Turn
One Card to Come |
|---|---|---|
| PERCENTAGE | PERCENTAGE | |
| 1 | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 4.3 |
| 3 | 12.5 | 6.5 |
| 4 | 16.5 | 8.7 |
| 5 | 20.3 | 10.9 |
| 6 | 24.1 | 13.0 |
| 7 | 27.8 | 15.2 |
| 8 | 31.5 | 17.4 |
| 9 | 35.0 | 19.6 |
| 10 | 38.4 | 21.7 |
| 11 | 41.7 | 24.0 |
| 12 | 45.0 | 26.1 |
| 13 | 48.1 | 28.3 |
| 14 | 51.2 | 30.4 |
| 15 | 54.1 | 32.6 |
| 16 | 57.0 | 34.3 |
| 17 | 59.8 | 37.0 |
| 18 | 62.4 | 39.1 |
| 19 | 65.0 | 41.3 |
| 20 | 67.5 | 43.5 |
Odds Scenarios Chart
The odds of improving your hand on the flop when you hold certain pocket cards:
| You hold | Flop gives you | Odds | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket pair | Three of a kind | 10.1-1 | 9.0% |
| Pocket pair | Four of a kind | 407-1 | 0.24% |
| Pocket pair | Full house | 136-1 | 0.73% |
| Any two unpaired cards | Two pairs | 48.5-1 | 2.0% |
| Any two unpaired cards | A pair | 2.1-1 | 32.4% |
| Two suited cards | Flush | 118-1 | 0.84% |
| Two suited cards | Four cards to a flush | 8.1-1 | 10.9% |
| Any two unsuited cards | Four cards to a flush | 88-1 | 1.12% |
| Two connected offsuit cards (4,5 to T,J) | Straight | 76-1 | 1.31% |
The odds of improving your hand on the turn when you hold certain hand
| You have | Turn gives you | Odds | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four cards to a flush | Flush | 4.2-1 | 19.1% |
| Open ended four card straight | Straight | 4.9-1 | 17.0% |
| Gutshot straight draw | Straight | 10.8-1 | 8.5% |
| Three of a kind | Four of a kind | 46-1 | 2.1% |
| Two pair | Full house | 10.8-1 | 8.5% |
| A pair | Three of a kind | 22.5-1 | 4.3% |
| Nothing | A pair with a pocket card | 6.8-1 | 12.8% |
The odds of improving your hand on the river when you hold certain hand:
| You have | River gives you | Odds | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four cards to a flush | Flush | 4.1-1 | 19.6% |
| Open ended four card straight | Straight | 4.8-1 | 17.4% |
| Gutshot straight draw | Straight | 10.5-1 | 8.7% |
| Three of a kind | Four of a kind | 45-1 | 2.2% |
| Two pair | Full house | 10.5-1 | 8.7% |
| A pair | Three of a kind | 22-1 | 4.3% |
| Nothing | A pair with a pocket card | 6.7-1 | 13.0% |
The odds of improving your hand from the flop to the river:
| You have | Turn or river gives you | Odds | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four cards to a flush | Flush | 1.9-1 | 35.0% |
| Three cards to a flush | Flush | 23-1 | 4.2% |
| Open ended four card straight | Straight | 2.2-1 | 32.0% |
| Gutshot straight draw | Straight | 5.1-1 | 17.0% |
| Three of a kind | Four of a kind | 22.3-1 | 4.3% |
| Two pair | Full house | 5.1-1 | 17.0% |
| A pair | Four of a kind | 1080-1 | 0.09% |
| A pair | Three of a kind | 10.9-1 | 8.4% |
Flop probability:
| The table flops | Odds | % |
|---|---|---|
| Three of a kind | 424-1 | 0.24% |
| A pair | 5-1 | 17.0% |
| Three suited cards | 18-1 | 5.2% |
| Two suited cards | 0.8-1 | 55.0% |
| No suited cards | 1.5-1 | 40.0% |
| Three cards to a straight | 28-1 | 3.5% |
| Two cards to a straight | 1.5-1 | 40.0% |
| No straight cards | 0.8-1 | 56.0% |
Above are a couple of charts that have your chances of drawing your card computed for you. These are based on your number of outs. OUTS are how many different cards are theoretically left in the deck to improve your hand i.e. make your straight, make your flush, get trips.
If you have the pair of 9's in the previous example, you have two outs, the other two nines. This is theoretical. If you are playing two or three-handed, there is a pretty good chance no one has taken one of your outs.
But, with ten players in, there is a pretty good chance of someone having one of your nines. That is why these percentages are only theoretical. You can only make the assumptions of the percentages based on the cards you've actually seen.
With your two outs, and the turn and the river to come, the chart says you have an 8.4% chance of getting the other nine. With only the river left, you are down to a 4.3% chance.
Will it happen at 4.3%? I get beat by folks needing this supposed 4.3% all the time. Supposedly, if I am in the lead and only one of these two cards will give him the win, and there is only the river card to come, I should have a 95.7% chance of winning.
Do I win the showdown 96% of the time? Not even close. That would mean I would only suffer 4 bad beats in every 100 showdowns at that percentage. With my luck, and my experience, I would say he would draw the nine 25-35% of the time. Not 4%.
Pessimistic? Maybe a little, but the percentages are totally based on cards you've seen. They are not based on the actual cards left. There is the problem.
In order to calculate your outs, you have to base it off of the cards you've actually seen. Example: You have JT. Flop comes 9 Q 4. You have an open-ended straight draw. You have eight outs to complete your hand. Will it be the best hand? Possibly not.
If the K comes on the turn, you have your straight. Unfortunately, when a J or a 10 comes on the river, anyone holding A 10 or A J now has a better straight than you. You always want the straight to fill in on the low end in order to bet it. But I digress.
You have eight outs, the four K's and the four 8's. There are "47" cards left. You have two and can actually see 3 more. So, 52 cards minus 5 cards are 47. In a ten-handed game, it is more than likely that someone, or two, or four, had your cards. This would lower your percentage.
As it is, you have a theoretical 31.5% chance of completing your hand with the next 2 cards. But, you say, isn't 8 divided by 47 17%? Yes it is. And that is why the percentages given "with 2 cards left" are a bit of a farce.
There is some pretty smooth math involved in generating this 31.5% chance, and none of it has to do with poker. In reality, you have a 17% draw on the turn card (8/47), and then when you don't make it, you have a better 17.4% (8/46) chance of making the straight. These are all theoretical percentages I'll remind you.
There are nine other guys at the table, each with two cards. If NONE of these guys took ANY of your out cards, your percentages go up to (8/29) 27.6% on the turn and (8/28) 28.6% on the river.
As you can see, the actual percentages vary quite a bit. The only way to get the true percentage is to play all the cards face up. Unfortunately, the cards are played face down, thus you never know your true percentage. That is, unless you are in a two-handed situation and one of you two are all-in.
Computing Outs Percentages the Easy Way!
As you may expect, there is a lot of math involved to come up with the percentages above. Do you need to know it, or memorize the charts? No.
The easy way to figure your percentage chance of hitting your card is to come up with your number of outs. If the situation is post-flop, take that number times 4. (4x outs)
If the situation is post-turn, take the number times 2, plus 2. ((2x outs)+2) These percentages will be pretty close. What you are really trying to decide is your theoretical chance of drawing the card. The actual percentage is not all that relevant.
In the example with the 9's above, you know you need one of two cards that may be left in the deck. That is two outs. As I said before, I don't put much faith in the percentages with two cards left. I just treat each draw as it's own separate entity. In this case, two outs times two plus two. A six percent chance of getting the other 9 on the turn, and if not then, on the river.
All you really need to know is that six percent is not all that good. A little better than one in twenty. Again, this is more of a guideline and not a predictor of what will actually happen.
Recently I was in a game, post-flop, where one of my opponents went all-in. I didn't have a pair yet, but when I counted my outs, I came up with 19 of them. I figured if I hit ANY of the 19 outs, I'd win the hand. If you look at the chart, that means that I have a 65% chance of getting the card I need in the next two cards. Since I don't believe that, and just use the times two, plus two, I figured I'd have a 40% chance on each draw.
That is a great percentage, actually, if you are behind in a hand. So I call his all-in. He had a pocket pair 66. I didn't hit ANY of my supposed 19 outs and I was out of the game. After knowing what he had, I went back and counted how many "actual" outs I had. It ended up being something like 30 or so. 30 cards, in two draws to beat his weak pair of 66 and I couldn't do it.
I am not ONLY one of the unluckiest card players in the world; I am also one of the most bitter.
"If it weren't for luck, I guess I'd win every hand." Was once quoted by Phil Hellmuth in one of his tirades. That is exactly how I feel.
It is also said that "Good poker players don't play hoping to get lucky. They hope to not get unlucky." This statement is true also.