Pocket JJ Hits Set on Flop, Folds on River: A Test of Poker Wisdom and Courage

2025-03-20 267

When a Set of Jacks Meets a Straight: A Heartbreaking Fold Story

John Beauprez, the "PLO Godfather" of the poker world, founder and head coach of PLO QuickPro training site, master of both NLHE (No-Limit Hold'em) and PLO (Pot-Limit Omaha), author of poker "bibles" like "PLO Mastery," known online as KasinoKrime (sounds cool, doesn't it?). Today's story takes place at the 2018 MSPT Denver Poker Open in Black Hawk, Colorado—a hand that's both astonishing and heartbreaking.

Hand Replay: When JJ Met Its Turning Point

Setting: Blinds at 400/800, with a 100 ante (chips are no small matter at this point).

Pre-flop: Our protagonist Beauprez, in UTG+1 position (first after the gun, typically considered a "hot potato" position), picks up a beautiful pair of J♠J♠ and raises without hesitation to 2000 (standard 2.5BB open). The CO player calls (first foreshadowing), then a player named Tye Rogers in the big blind also calls (second foreshadowing—this should raise some awareness).

Flop: Q♥J♣3♦ rainbow (no flush possibilities). Rogers checks (the classic "please fire" posture), Beauprez sees he's hit a set of Jacks and must be thinking "Today's my lucky day!" He bets 3800 (standard half-pot bet). The CO player wisely folds, but Rogers calls (alarm bells should be ringing).

Turn: 9♠. Rogers checks again (continuing to play "innocent"), Beauprez continues with a bet of 5200 (maintaining aggression), then Rogers suddenly changes face with a check-raise to 15200 (alarm bells should be deafening now)! Beauprez thinks and calls (after all, a set of Jacks isn't easy to fold).

River: 7♥, making the final board Q♥J♣3♦9♠7♥. This time Rogers doesn't continue his "checking game" but instead shoves all-in for 39000 chips (a signal saying "I have a straight, please give me your money").

At this crucial moment, Beauprez makes a decision that surprises observers—he folds his set of Jacks! (Imagine folding a set—how much courage and self-control that requires!)

Amazing Hand Reading: Why Folding a Set of Jacks Was Correct

After the tournament, Rogers revealed to Beauprez that he held K♠T♥ (T representing 10), successfully hitting a straight. The evidence proved Beauprez's hand reading and decision-making were simply brilliant! It was like finding the exit in complete darkness with perfect precision.

The Art of Poker Thinking: Beauprez's Analysis Process

In his post-game analysis, Beauprez pointed out that Rogers' all-in strategy wasn't sophisticated enough; otherwise, he could have extracted more value, and Beauprez wouldn't have folded so easily. It's like a hunter shooting too eagerly and scaring away the prey.

On the flop, Beauprez had already started narrowing down Rogers' range:

Open-ended straight draws (like KT, T9, etc.)
Top pair (possibly Q with some kicker)
Since Rogers called pre-flop very quickly, Beauprez completely ruled out bottom pair
It was also unlikely that Rogers would call with gapped connectors like 86 or 95

When the 9 appeared on the turn and Rogers made a check-raise, the situation suddenly became complex. Beauprez noted: "In deep-stacked multi-table tournaments, very few players check-raise bluff on the turn." This was like seeing an obvious danger signal in the poker world.

Nevertheless, Beauprez hadn't given up on his set of Jacks yet; he wanted to test Rogers' hand strength further. He explained: "Given my potential pot odds and the fact that he might value bet with hands like Q9 or J9, he would always check the river with these hands, allowing me to either value bet or subsequently check, depending on what the river is. He would only bet with a straight."

When the 7 appeared on the river and Rogers chose to shove all-in, this move was like saying: "I have a straight, please give me your chips." Beauprez explained his folding decision: "Because Rogers rarely bluffs and doesn't make thin value bets with hands worse than a straight, it's clearly a fold even with a set of Jacks."

Poker Life Philosophy: Sometimes the Greatest Courage Is Knowing When to Fold

This hand taught us a vivid poker lesson, also a microcosm of life philosophy:

Reading cards is not just about reading cards, but reading people: Beauprez analyzed not only the board but also his opponent's behavioral patterns and thought processes.
Sometimes even the strongest hands need to be folded: A set of Jacks is a very strong hand in most situations, but in specific contexts, it might just be "the second-best hand."
Poker isn't about winning every hand, but making correct decisions: Beauprez preferred to give up this hand rather than risk losing more chips.
Emotional control is key to success: Being able to calmly analyze and fold a strong hand requires exceptional emotional control.

Can You Do It? The Ultimate Test for Poker Players

Imagine waiting patiently for many rounds, finally getting pocket JJ, then hitting a set on the flop—this is practically a poker player's dream! But when all signs point to your opponent possibly having a stronger hand, could you fold like Beauprez did?

It's like preparing diligently for a speech, only to discover right before going on stage that someone else's presentation is better than yours—do you insist on going up or choose to withdraw? Poker, like life, sometimes requires the wisdom not of knowing how to win, but knowing when to step back.

Fellow poker players, if you had this hand and faced an all-in on the river, could you fold your set? This might be the key step that distinguishes poker players from poker masters.

Remember, at the poker table, preserving your chips allows you to wait for the next opportunity. As Beauprez demonstrated, sometimes the bravest action isn't calling, but folding.