Playing Texas Hold'em Online, The Professional Guide - Chapter 10

How To Tell If You Have A Texas Hold'em Nut Hand

Want to have a Texas Hold'em hand that no one can beat? With a little practice, you can learn to read the table and determine the hole cards necessary to make the nut hand. Most of the time no one actually has the nuts, but when someone raises, take time to study the table carefully. Do they have what it takes? It pays to know the difference between a probable winner and the absolute nuts.

A nut set is three of a kind with a pair in the hole equal to the highest card on the board and no possibility of a straight or a flush. The smallest possible nut set on the river is a set of queens (see example)

This set of queens is the nuts. There is no possibility of a higher set, a straight or a flush.

In this hand, one or more players could have 10,9 in the hole and this top set of queens could then be sandwiched between nut straights. Even 7,5 in the hole would make a straight.

The nut hole cards are king‐anything of spades. Any two spades in the hole would beat this set of aces.

Three‐of‐a‐kind with a pair on the board is trips not a set. Trips cannot be the nuts. Kings, fives or threes in the hole would beat these trip jacks.

Texas Hold'em Poker Nut Hands ‐ Four Of A Kind

You have the nut four of a kind if you have at least one of the four cards in the hole and there is no higher pair on the board and no possibility of a straight flush.

You have the nuts if the four of a kind is on the board and you have the nut kicker in the hole. If the four of a kind is Kings or less, the nut kicker is an ace. If the four of a kind is aces, the nut kicker is a King. At the showdown you will split the pot with any other players who also have the nut kicker.

If the four of a kind and the nut kicker are on the board, you will split the pot with all the players who are in the hand at the showdown.

This is a nut hand. There is no higher pair on the board and no possibility of a straight flush. Hope like mad you get some action from pocket aces, pocket deuces or a heart flush.

The four eights are on the board, but the ace kicker in the hole makes this hand the nuts. If any other players have an ace in the hole, the pot will be split.

Four threes and the top kicker are on the board. All the players who are in the hand at the showdown will split the pot.

These quad fives could lose to a higher four of a kind. The nut hole cards are pocket sevens

The jack‐ten of spades in the hole would make a royal flush.

Three‐of‐a‐kind with a pair on the board is trips not a set. Trips cannot be the nuts. Kings, fives or threes in the hole would beat these trip jacks.

Texas Hold'em Poker Nut Hands ‐ Flush

Insider Tip: The nut flush is an ace high flush with the highest possible flush card in the hole, no pair or better on the board and no possibility of a straight flush.

Sometimes, there is a flush on the board and it might be the best hand, but there cannot be a nut flush on the board.

In Texas Hold'em Poker there can be only one nut flush. If the winning hand is a flush, it wins the entire pot.

Texas Hold'em Poker Nut Hands‐ Full Houses

Insider Tip: You have the nut full house in Texas Hold'em Poker when there is only one pair on the board that is higher than the other up cards and equal to your high hole card and the next highest up card is equal to your other hole card and there is no possibility of a straight flush.

You have the nut full house in Texas Hold'em Poker when there are two pairs on the board that are higher than the fifth up card and each pair is equal to one of your hole cards and there is no possibility of a straight flush.

There cannot be a nut full house on the board. If there's a full house on the board, the nut hand is four of a kind.

Insider Tip: You cannot have a nut full house with a pocket pair.

The Pre‐Flop Winning Odds System

These charts are based on 400,000,000 Texas Hold'em Poker hands dealt to 10 players.

This is my favorite table. It sits by my mouse during every online game I play. And here's why.

HOW TO BET PRE‐FLOP

Example ‐ You are dealt two queens. Time comes to match or raise a bet. The chance of winning the hand is 22% (see chart). The pot is $50. Based on a 22% chance of winning, your pot odds would indicate a safe bet of $10 at the pre‐flop (22% x $50). Then somebody goes crazy and starts betting. Do you know what kind of a player they are? Do they have a pair of 9's? Over 50% of the pots are won by a pair of 9's or better.

Tight players never deviate from these rules unless they are playing with a very weak table.

When you start out, if you follow these guidelines, you will lose less while you are learning and you will start to win more consistently.

Another example

You are dealt a pair of aces in the pocket.

The odds of winning with 2 aces is 31% ‐ the best odds in the game. Pre‐flop you have a massive advantage. The only choice at this point what should the maximum bet be.

Estimate the total of the pot at the end of the betting round and bet no more than 31%.

If you estimate the pot to be $150 the maximum bet you should take is 31% of $150 = $31.

Question – If the bet to stay in is much lower, should you raise? For example, if the bet to you is $20 do you raise?

There are two considerations here. With an average hand, you may want to see players leave the game and improve your odds of winning. Raising to the maximum could have that effect.

On the other hand, having the nuts means you want to build the pot at the early stages. Anything can still happen –you don't have a lock on the win remember. You only have a 31% chance of winning.

Our advice – win as much as you can when you have the right cards. In this example, raise the bet to $30 if you have a lot of weak players and see who stays in. Bet slightly less ‐ $15 – $20 if the table is stronger.

Example – You draw a 2 and a 7.

This is the worst pocket hand you can be dealt based on the odds of winning. It should be clear why.

You have no higher cards to build on. You have no flush potential and no chance of developing a straight.

You have a 4% chance of winning the pot (see the charts at the end of this book). Should you stay in?

Only if the cost to stay in the game and see the flop is less than 4% of the total pre‐flop pot.

Estimate the pot at $100 that would mean a maximum bet of $4. Based on a game where the blind is $5/$10 you would need at least a 10% chance of winning. Get out fast.

What if you fold and see a 2 and a 7 in the flop –two pairs? This can happen and you may be beating yourself up over it. But if you let a bad example of odds modify your play and betting, over the long haul you will be suckered in by long shots and your style of play will suffer. The odds are the odds.

As you can see from these examples, a simple rule is ‐the larger the pot, the better the cards you would need at the pre‐flop to stay in the game.

REASONS NOT TO BLUFF

Bluffing should probably not be an automatic reaction. Many times, it takes a feel for a table to make you want to bluff. When doing it keep in mind that everyone else is also looking for an opportunity to bluff. Maybe you spot them bluffing in a common situation or they spot you. It only works when you get away with it, so you must use it sparingly.

Here are some times when you outright should not bluff.

1. When players expect you to.

Don't be the fish. Revealing you're playing style can be bluffing in telltale situations against players who know them. That's a common money‐maker for the other players. Always consider this rule before attempting a bluff.

2. When you've been caught bluffing recently.

You've been labelled as a poor bluffer already. Ride it out. Let them forget that hand. Start rebuilding a reputation as a straight player so you can eventually try a bluff again later (and hopefully not screw it up again)

3. Against a dangerous flop.

If the flop has an Ace, chances are that someone has a pair of aces. Aces tend to make it beyond pre‐flop. Also, players tend to continue to play their Aces. Don't bluff against Aces.

You also wouldn't want to bluff against a flop like K,Q,9. Chances are someone has something they'll stick with.

4. Against lots of players.

Chances are that someone has something that they'll stick with. By bluffing in this situation, you just become an agent of that player. From an odds perspective, this is never worth it.

5. Against bad players.

As much as they love to bluff, they love to catch someone in a bluff. They're much more likely to keep you honest because the y doesn't realize what a money‐loser that is. It's much more profitable to play straight up in these games. Bluffing is only effective from a fear perspective in this case.

6. You just lost a big hand.

Not only might you be on a bad run, but other players will expect you to be on a bad run, and will more readily call you.

7. You are in a blind position.

You really have to evaluate the flop, but generally other players will think you have a poor hand and expect you to bluff.

Using Odds During a Bluff

It's always good to look at poker from a mathematical perspective, and that even applies to bluffing.

You can determine finite amounts and percentages that can tell you if it is a financially feasibly good time to bluff. This is particularly useful when there are only one or two players and the pot is rather large.

It's good to do these calculations with potential straights or flush that appeared on the river, that you were going for but you didn't make.

It's nice with a flop that starts with Heart, Heart, Spade, and ends with Spade, Spa de. You had two Hearts. Or a flop like Five, Seven, Eight, and ends with Ten, Jack. You had a Six. It's also good because they might have been on the same draw, which leads them to believe (also from on odds perspective) that you were not on that draw.

Let's say that one of the above cases occurred in a $5/$10 game and on the river, there is $140 in the pot. Your only opponent checks to you.

If you check, you know you've lost.

So, you bluff. The reasoning is that if you invest another $10, you're getting 14 to 1 odd. As a percent that's around 7%. If they fold more than 7% of the time, you make money in the long poker game of life. If not, it's a losing venture.

You still have to evaluate the player, but from a purely mathematical standpoint, you get the picture. You can also evaluate it by reasoning that they missed their draw more than 7% of the time and will fold.

If two players were involved in the pot, it cuts the odds in half. With three, it becomes 1/3rd of 7%, etc. You can see why you want to bluff against fewer players.

This can be unreliable though, as some players will stay in purely based on pot odds. So, when bluffing you cannot ever use just odds. Get a feel for your opponents, and act accordingly.

HOW TO KNOW WHEN THEY'RE BLUFFING?

This isn't about reading tells. This is about the situations where bluffing is plausible, and when other players will do it. You can generally look at the reasons YOU should bluff and apply them to other players. Of course, you also have to know the player, and evaluate it from there, but here are some ideas.

1. They are betting aggressively despite a poor flop.

If they bet pre‐flop from a poor position, and the flop is something like 4, 5, 5, they are probably just trying to keep momentum going and bluff their way out of this hand. They probably have genuinely zero drawing chances with over‐cards or maybe an over‐pair, but a re‐raise could have them rethink that strategy. It might also give you a betting round or two to try and make YOU R hand.

2. Pot Odds are in their favor.

If everyone folds on the turn with a big pot, like when an obvious d raw was missed, expect a bluff. It's almost certain that anyone will bluff against a big pot. With the pot odds the way they are, you probably want to stay in those hands also.

3. It's between you and them.

The most common time to bluff is when you CAN pull it off. It's very easy to trick just one person. Use your skills at evaluating the previous rounds and the board to determine what they might have.

4. The flop doesn't have any draws.

Sometimes someone will bet in this case to eliminate the ability to acquire a draw, sometimes because they have a good hand. You really have to know the player in this case.

5. They bet on the Flop, checked on the turn.

If there was a draw, and it didn't hit, they are probably just buying a free card. Bet back against them and take the initiative.

6. Bet on the flop, bet on the turn, checked on the river.

Same as before, but they bought another turn. Might as well bet back at them.

7. They bet and tell you to "save your money".

If they really wanted you to save your money, they wouldn't have bet. Sometimes players say that just to create the opposite image, so look out. Few are that crafty though, so tell your opposition that he's bluffing and re‐raise.

HOW TO ATTACK A WEAK PLAYER

Insider Tip: The most successful players are not always the tightest and you can't win anything when you fold.

Pros add to their hourly win rate by finding times to play hands that are small losers in the hands of lesser players. They do this both by playing those hands especially well and by playing them when a bad player is already in. That's why knowing your table is so important.

The secret to beating online poker can be where you get a lot of tight passive players sitting on their hands while a successful player (or two or three) eats an awful player (or two) alive.

Most people play backwards. They play loose and see a lot of flops in the early rounds, then absurdly tighten up later.

Unless you are one of those rare players who simply can't play without a big stack, don't fritter away your chips in the early rounds on marginal junk. Those chips can be very useful once the important rounds begin.

Sitting around waiting for good cards to play against the tight players is fairly pointless. There is zero point to playing in a game with decent players.

The only reason to be in this game is to play with the fish.

BAD HANDS THAT LOOK GOOD

This hand makes me think of the data a major Casino put out about the actual results of all Hold'em hands for the first six million games played on their site.

The hands that lost the most money were not the worst hands possible. The biggest money loser (not coincidentally) is 32s. It lost more than 32s or 72s. Then also, A2s lost more than 32s.

Insider Tip: Most players overvalue garbage cards. It's the kiss of death.

Hands that should do better than other hands (32s should do better than 32o) end up doing markedly worse because people play them and think they have something.

23 is the single most costly Hold'em holding in the hands of 90% of the players . . . and it holds that distinction by far. 234 is a big improvement, adding the 7 helps, and adding a suit does too, but anyone who thinks this is a good hand is surely going to lose a lot of money with it.

Again, this scenario is about the best possible for the hand (besides a free ride in the blind of course), but the hand is still highly speculative and will be a money loser for non‐good players. Contrast this to A347 and even a non‐good player will have a profitable hand on the button.

The pursuit of available information, even if it takes a bit of work, is largely what separates winning (and breakeven) players from losing players.

Certainly, most players lose, but the combination of the winning players and the smallish losers is in the ballpark of half the players. bigtime losers are a smaller percentage ‐‐especially among players who play more than five sessions in their life. Also, the whole concept of bigtime losers is fallacious because while plenty of players lose 100% of what they deposit that 100% is often $100.