Playing Texas Hold'em Online, The Professional Guide - Chapter 8

Player Profiling or Watching Who You Play With!

Here's some advice that will improve your game as much as it'll have a positive impact on your wallet or purse. If you watched the movie, The Beautiful Mind, you'll be familiar with the Mathematician John Nash and his discovery of Game Theory. Game Theory is a fascinating concept that turns game relationships, opponents and players, into mathematical functions that can be 'crunched' and computed. Playing styles can be analyzed and defined. In fact, the best Texas Hold'em computer simulations focus on playing styles more than just odds to study how the values of cards change depending on the betting style of the other players. Playing style has a much larger influence on the outcome of the game than most of us realized until the last few years.

Based again on these computer studies, four basic types of playing styles have been identified:

• Loose-passive --- Net Looser
• Loose-Aggressive --- Low Moderate Wins
• Tight-Passive --- Moderate Wins
• Tight-Aggressive --- Maximum Wins

Loose‐passive: Often referred to as calling stations, these players tend to call any bet as long as they have even the remotest chance of winning the pot. Interestingly, loose‐passive players often will not raise when they have a good hand (that's the passive side of their unique personality). By the same token, they'll also not fold when they have a garbage hand. They tend to stay in the majority of hands unless pushed hard to call.

Loose‐aggressive: Loose‐aggressive players will make often and inappropriate raises. They will not always have the best hand when they raise, and will even raise with garbage hands. Loose players tend to bet irrationally – first they raise, then they stay, then they raise and then they fold. That uncertainty is a dead giveaway. Due to their inconsistent and irrational play, loose‐ aggressive are often called Manicas. Playing against maniacs can be profitable, but they can also be expensive to play against, due to the number of wild raises you'll have to call.

Tight‐passive: These players are known as rocks. Tight‐passive players play fewer hands than most and play them very cautiously. This is the preferred style of 'fish' play when starting out according to the Food Chain Theory of play. When a tight‐passive player does raise though ‐ watch out, it's more than likely that they have the nutsy. Playing tight‐passive will keep you from losing money, but it won't make you rich either.

Tight‐aggressive: Tight‐aggressive players also play few of the hands dealt to them, but will be much more varied in the way they play. If a tight‐aggressive player raises, you'll never know if they have a good hand or if they're bluffing. And that's exactly the point. Tight‐aggressive players are selectively aggressive. They will bet very cautiously on good hands to try and trap players with lesser hands into betting later and building the pot. They will raise to create an expectation in other players that they have a great hand in order to push weaker players out of the hand. And this is very important, as you understand how reducing the number of players in the hand can dramatically increase the power of your hand. Tight‐aggressive is the standard that you should aspire to.

To practice your ability to 'read' player types, find a mid‐sized game. This size of game allows you more of a choice of who to sit by. Watch everyone play. Get a feel for who's playing tight, who's aggressive, and who sucks. Note who check‐raised, bluffed or semi‐bluffed. Count the number of times each player bets on the pre‐flop or folds. These are key indicators to player type. If you can label each of the players in this way, you will have advanced your ability to win by leaps and bounds.

The first thing you need to decide as you observe is whether these players are clearly better than you. Always avoid games where you see a lot of early pre and post flop raises, and avoid games where it looks like one or two strong players are cleaning up on everyone else at the table. Very aggressive players will take over a table and cause a lot of grief. Steer clear of these tables if you consider yourself a fish or a barracuda. Even as a shark, usually one or two aggressive players at a table is enough eliminate easy wins. Increasing the overall tightness of a table only benefits the house, which will make more money from the rake than you will ever make from the pot.

The Mathematics of Aggression

How effective is aggressive play in online Texas Hold'em? Now, no guessing here. I want the facts.

A very detailed study carried out by Carnegie‐Melon University showed the precise value of aggressive play. For the sake of this exercise, they had their computer‐simulated player come out playing aggressively on every hand, regardless of pocket pair quality, against a varied field of opponents. There were two very distinct scenarios (and only two) where this was a winning strategy.

One – against a loose table, very aggressive play was a winning strategy. In the case of our experiment, betting pre‐flop on every single hand added up to moderate winnings. In a real online game, betting like a maniac on every hand may diminish the power of this strategy because other players will pick up on your strategy ‐ but we suspect, not by much in online play. Again, the secret is finding the right table. Imagine the joy of sitting down at a large table full of new players and yours is the biggest stack. Like 'shooting fish in a barrel' as they say. This is the kind of table you are searching for.

Two – against three or less players, this aggressive approach was also a net moneymaker. As soon as you go to four players or better, the technique started to hemorrhage serious money. All of our research shows that bluffing at full or near full tables is a waste of money, and this study supports that. At the end of this chapter, we have included a complete chart on the pocket hands that successfully take the pot based on number of players at the table. You will see quite clearly that strong hands double in power and relatively weak cards can become big winners. Narrow the field and you can pump up the power of your cards.

Insider Tip: An excellent indicator of playing style is that the bankrolls of tight players tend to go down in small amounts incrementally, and periodically go up in mid and large amounts. Watching stacks can give you valuable information about player style.

Loose Players Have Bigger Swings.

Money tends to move clockwise around the table because it's easier to read players to the right. When that really loose player is about to take a negative swing, you want to be at a positional advantage over him or her.

Even more, you want a maniac on your right. Maniacs eliminate players with okay and drawing hands. Twenty-year‐old high school students are more readable, and you profit from being able to act directly after them.

Here's a question then – would you prefer to sit down card from a great player or a poor player?

Sitting in late position (next in sequence) from a poor player does not give you much of an advantage. You really need to know as much as possible about the best players, the one's most likely to take your money.

A loose player, someone who plays only for fun and doesn't really understand the game, is like an old car. He or she will wander all over the road, their steering is wobbly and they can't be depended on to play according to their cards. Watch for and appreciate loose players. They are great contributors. They tend to bet more than they win and build pots for the rest of us.

While different players prefer different styles of play, the general consensus is that the ideal table is loose‐passive. That means lots of callers and few raises, especially before the flop. You will also want to play at tables where most, if not all of the players are worse than you. You will make most of your profit from other player's mistakes.

Tight players on your left will more likely call a bet than re‐raise even though they might have a decent hand. You can more easily scare them into thinking you've got the nuts and buy more free cards despite the fact that they've got a positional advantage on you.

Research shows that lots of pre‐flop raising reduces your potential profit. It also becomes more expensive to see the flop overall, which negatively affects your bankroll all those times when the flop doesn't hit you.

Insider Tip: It is always better to have six players calling one bet than three players calling two bets. Even though the pot size in both cases is the same, in the first situation you will make a profit of 5:1, whereas in the raising situation you will only make a profit of 2:1. Simply put, the more players there are putting money into the pot, the more profit there will be when you win.

A tighter game, where fewer players are calling before the flop and staying until the showdown, can also reduce your overall profit. But some players prefer a tight‐passive table, since tight‐passive opponents are rather predictable. A tight‐passive table gives a player the opportunity to steal more pots, since you can often make other players fold with a well‐timed raise.

Fishing For Loose Players

If you sit at a table of ten and at least half of the players are better than you, you will lose. If one or two of the players are better than you, you have a fair chance of taking some money home but this is still not an ideal situation. Your profit is going to be determined more by the composition of the table than the types of cards you are dealt. You can't control the cards – you can pick your table and move if it gets ugly.

How do you know?

As we have been preaching, the great advantage of online poker is that it allows you to observe the table before you play. Once you have chosen what appears to be a fairly loose table, you begin to carefully observe. The best recommendation I can give you is, if you want to be a winner, spend at least 15 minutes. Many would suggest spending at least 30 minutes ‐ before beginning play. This may seem like a lot of time to invest – but once you begin to play, you will have a clear idea of who you need to beat and who you need to milk to win.

The Table Rating System

Here's a simple rating system we use to evaluate how 'winnable' a table is.

We assign each player a number from 1‐10.

Ten (10) is the loosest player – a beginner, someone who bets wildly and show poor cards at the showdown.

One (1) is for the tightest player. Someone who plays and wins consistently, can't be bluffed, has accumulated substantial winnings, makes reasonable decisions, doesn't play every hand.

Assign each player at the table a number from 1‐10.

If you are not sure from observation what their score is, score them higher than you would guess. They are probably better players.

On apiece of paper or in your head, mark the table with these numbers.

When you get a chance to, always play down card from the two best players on the table. This is a winning position.

Now add up the numbers and divide by the total players.

1+3+7+4+5+1+1+10+9 = 4.5

If the average of the table is 6 or better, don't play. There are too many good players for you to be a consistent winner. Even an average of 5 can reduce your chances. What you are looking for is a table where most of the players are looser than you. The lower the number the better.

The Casino Giveth Sometimes

Players who never fold on the first two cards even when it costs them, are loose. A higher percentage means a much looser game. Most online poker rooms, such as Pacific Poker, list the percentage of players who are seeing the flop. Players who fold often on the first two cards tend to be tighter players.

All online poker rooms also list the average pot size. You do not necessarily want to play at the table with the highest average pot size, since this may indicate a lot of raises going into the pot.

For loose‐passive games, choose a table with a relatively high flop percentage and a reasonably average pot size.

Another factor to consider is the number of players at the table. Most online tables are ten‐handed, which means you'll have to play relatively tight. You should take position into account and call before the flop with premium cards or good drawing hands. More players mean more competition, so you'll have to show down better hands.

At a six‐handed table, you can play considerably looser than you can at a ten‐handed table. The side effect of this is that you'll experience more variance (the swings in your bankroll will be greater). Some players prefer short‐handed tables because you get to see the flop more often, and thus have more chances at winning the pot.

Insider Tip: Aggression in poker has far more power at a short‐ handed table.

It will take some experience to learn what type of table is best for you. While you can't go wrong with a loose‐passive table full of mediocre players, you may find that a loose‐aggressive or tight‐ passive table suits you best. If you find yourself at a table where you are struggling to make a profit, don't hesitate to leave and join another table.

Raises in Loose Games

All new poker players will generally start out in loose, low limit games. While most experienced players prefer the sort of loose‐passive play present at a low limit table, others may have difficulty playing against opponents who repeatedly suck out and win with garbage hands and bad plays. A common complaint among low limit players is that opponents will not always fold to appropriate raises, and occasionally, mediocre low limit players will make incorrect raises. Knowing when to raise, and how to interpret an opponent's raise is covered below. The following information assumes that you have made an appropriate table selection, and are not playing at a table that is overly aggressive or tight

Insider Tip: If you've got a great starting hand, especially a high pair (JJ or higher), don't hesitate to raise and re‐ raise before the flop.

One of the most common complaints among low‐limit players is that opponents often suck out with inferior hands against a solid hand such as AA. The best way to win with these hands is to play them fast and aggressively.

Raise before the flop, and keep on betting after the flop. Unless the game is ridiculously loose (and your opponents are ridiculously bad), almost all of your opponents will fold to your aggressive betting. You won't always win with AA or KK, but if you play them aggressively, the majority of the time you will.

Again, the research shows that aggressive play will drive down the number of players in the hand and increase your odds of winning.

Since many low limit players will play incorrectly and call bets and raises with just about any half‐decent hand, you need to make sure that you are raising when you think you have the best hand. If you do have what you believe is the best hand at that point, then you need to raise to get other players out of the pot, who may draw out on you with a garbage hand. If you are repeatedly winning and showing down the best hands, then other players will start to respect your raises and get out of your way.

If you've flopped a decent hand (top pair with good kicker, two pair, etc.) and are betting on it, don't be scared off if someone raises it to two bets.

Although you could very well be beaten, experience shows that bad players will sometimes raise with any decent pair, a draw or even over cards. Call the bet, and be prepared to call to the river unless the board looks scary or the action gets too intense. If you fold every time, you get raised with a decent hand, then you'll lose out on some pots that you would have won, had you shown the hand down.

Insider Tip: Utilize pot odds to determine whether the payoff is big enough to justify putting in more bets. Then observe opponent play to see if the raise is valid.

On the other hand, if an opponent re‐raises it to three bets, be very concerned. Generally, a mediocre low limit player will not re‐raise unless they have a great hand. Take time to study the board to determine what your opponent might have. You might be tempted to follow the above advice and call him to the river, hoping that he is bluffing. But time and time again, they will turn up a superior hand. Don't re‐raise unless you have the nuts, and if you don't have the absolute nuts, be prepared to call to the river.

Playing Tighter

If everyone at the Texas Hold'em Poker table plays loose then no one can win.

The players will trade pots back and forth while the casino slowly rakes all their money. The better Hold'em players will lose less, but in the long run, no one can win.

Insider Tip: "No one can win if everyone plays tight. Only the house wins."

The tight players will trade smaller pots back and forth while the casino rakes all their money. The better Hold'em players will lose less, but no one can win.

If everyone at the Texas Hold'em Poker table plays the same, no one can win. Learning Hold'em only by simply playing Hold'em is player's folly. If you learn to play Texas Hold'em poker like everyone else plays, you cannot have a long run edge.

To win at Texas Hold'em Poker you must play tight in loose games and play in loose games only.

There is no other way. You have no edge in a tight Hold'em game and you only have an edge in a loose game if you play tight. It might be possible to play loose and win in the long run if all the other players are complete idiots, but nature does not provide enough complete idiots who play Hold'em poker.

As players come and go during a Hold'em poker session the game will sometimes get tighter. You'll see more players folding on the first round. The pots will be smaller. If your Hold'em game gets too tight, find a better game or don't play at all.

You want to be the only tight player in a loose Hold'em poker game, but often there are one or more other tight players at the table. Sometimes loose players tighten up their play for whatever reason, but that's usually temporary. You'll have to take all of this into consideration when evaluating a Hold'em poker game. There's no exact way to measure it, but you can develop a feel for it.

The Law Of Big Numbers

Most of us are impressed with big numbers – like the size of Bill Gate's fortune. But what about small numbers that give you a huge advantage?

Let's say that you improve your odds of winning by 5%? So instead of winning 10 in every 100 pots (on average) you could increase that to 15. Doesn't sound like much does it?

Ten in 100 pots for 10 players really means you are getting back the money you bet less the house rake. Start with $100. Play 100 hands of Poker. The rake is $1 per pot. That's $100 the house takes from all the winnings leaving you $90 at the end of the night. The played all night and lost $10. Write that off to entertainment.

With 15 pots – that little 5% advantage means a lot.

You are now up, just based on average play, $115 for the night.

Small numbers make huge differences. Play three times a week for a year and you are up $18,000 based on your 5% advantage.

Never Sequence Bet

A sequence bet is a bet based on the idea that "Well, I've put in so much money on this lousy hand, I might as well see it through." Never change future strategy based on a past hand. So, you got lucky and drew on an inside straight? You should have folded. Not only will that luck not return, it will make you a looser player. We will tend to use the experience to modify future play.

Show the avatars (people in chairs), but don't stereotype them. This is probably the most debatable tip I'm guessing, because if you've turned them off, you probably really don't like The avatars to begin with. And if you do like avatars, well, they're probably on already. I just want to get my two cents in about this Party Poker tip by saying that even though avatars are computer graphics, it's again human nature to easily identify faces. That means we can more easily associate a personality to a face, so it makes it easier to remember how someone is playing when we can attach a face to a playing style.

That being said, I'm sure there is some negative influence of these faces as well, because we probably tend to associate a certain avatar with a playing style. For instance, I'll admit that I Used to mentally associate one of the avatar pictures with bluffing. I think this was caused by a long string of coincidences, when different players using that avatar would constantly bluff, so I just starting linking that specific avatar with bluffing. Don't let this happen to you.

If you are a 2 or a 3 – how do you get to be a 7 or an 8?

Playing Poker Solitaire

Human psychology is very interesting. Research has shown that the average gambler tends to underestimate the cards of their opponents and overvalue their own. One of the best ways to understand this tendency is to play Solitaire Poker.

Play out 6‐10 hands of Texas Hold'em, evaluate your card odds for the flop, and then look at the other down cards. You will be surprised at the number of opportunities to win you will see in the competition's hands.

Be hard on your hand. Sure, you could draw a card that will help you but so can all of the other remaining players.

One of the best exercises in an actual game is to try and guess the other players two down cards based on their playing style and betting. The better you become at this, the better your game will become. In the end, isn't this really the point of the game?

Reading Your Opponents

Online Poker eliminates visual and verbal clues 'tells') from the game. You can't see the faces of the other players (their real faces, in any case). This limits your ability to read the other players. The rules in online poker compensate for this by giving us a wealth of information in other ways.

• How the other players react to the bets?
• How quickly do they respond?
• What's their betting style?
• How often do they raise and when?
• Are they consistent – stay, raise, raise?
• Or raise, stay, raise, fold?

Wait a Full Table Rotation Before Posting the BB

Online 'Tells' ‐ The in‐turn buttons lead to the most obvious tell unique to online poker. If the blinking light representing a player acts immediately, it's likely this person has clicked the box of an in‐turn action. It is usually easy to determine when a player has a no‐brainer hand. The immediate check is often incredibly revealing. If you are first to act, and for some reason take a moment before checking, and your three opponents immediately check behind you like rifle fire, this is a tell as big as Texas. They haven't got a thing.

Another common situation . . . the first player takes a moment, and then finally checks. You have the bet/raise in turn button checked, so your bet appears, but instantly the player next to you raises. Uh‐oh, he had the bet/raise button checked too, and didn't care what you or the first player did. That tells a lot more than a just normal raise would ‐‐ an awful lot more.

Besides the speed of action resulting from using the buttons, other online tells can be discerned from how slow a player commonly acts on their hand. Players who are consistently super‐slow (rude human speed bumps) are likely not paying attention to the game, either because they are playing two games and are not competent at it, or because they are doing other work at home. Either way, if all of a sudden, this person plays a hand crisply and promptly and aggressively... well, they just woke up because they've got something.

The Stall is a common tell among average or slightly below average players. When the last card in Hold'em or Omaha makes a coordinated board (making a nut hand like a flush), the mediocre player pauses as if thinking, and then finally bets.

This pause almost always means powerhouse or at least that the bettor thinks he has a killer hand. Some would call it reverse psychology, but more often than not, it's true.

PRE‐FLOP STRATEGY

Before you start betting like a madman when you get two eights in the pocket, you need to carefully consider all factors involved in solid pre‐flop strategy.

The factors to consider are the number of players, how aggressive/passive the players at the table are, your bankroll, your position, and how much risk you are willing to entail.

THE RIGHT NUMBER OF PLAYERS

With 10 people in the game, it's much more likely that someone else has a strong hand in the pocket than in a short‐handed game. Also, you'll need to be more cautious in larger games, as the chances of someone's pre‐flop hand fitting the flop will be much better. More competition means stiffer competition.

HOW AGGRESSIVE ARE THE OTHER PLAYERS

Assuming you've been playing with a few people for several hands, and you noticed some jackass is raising every hand pre‐flop, you'll want to play tighter. Let the guy win the blinds (big deal) and nail him to the wall when you have a solid hand in the pocket pre‐flop.

Your Bankroll

If you have $2 left, you'll want to play extremely carefully and select one hand to bet on, hoping to get as many players involved as possible for a larger pot. You'll want to be all‐in before the flop is dealt. On the flip side, if you have $1000 at a $1/$2 table, you can take the high‐risk, high‐payout bets. If you are worried about losing your money, you should stop playing poker, switch tables or take a break. Second reason to buy more than is necessary, is for intimidation factor. Opinions may differ, but faced off against a big stack, my feelings are that a good number of players (but not all) show a bit more respect (read: fear) and will play accordingly ‐ which is to your benefit. Now, don't read this as buying in for $1,000 in a $1/2 game, because then people will think you are just nuts, but $400. Now we're talking.

Buy‐in More Than Necessary At The Poker Table

If you've been doing your homework, you'll know that you should always sit in with a minimum 50 times the big blind at any poker table. In the realities of online poker, this should be more along the lines of at least 100 times the BB. You should think about doing this too. Why? First, don't ever be in the position of holding the nuts and not having enough money to raise the pot. I've seen this happen too many times, where a guy will have flopped a full house in a $3/6 game, but only have $12 in his bankroll. He could have made a killing if it weren't for the fact he was playing with a small stack.